India just shot down a satellite from the ground. At what altitude range is the resulting debris field?Why would a box full of 1cm balls released into LEO be so scary to an engineer supporting the ISS? - (Updated)Who is accountable for damage caused by the debris field of a successful ASAT testHow does the US's 2008 debris cloud compare to India's 2019 and China's 2007 contributions?What did India's recently tested ASAT vehicle really look like?Is there any kind of research on *sub*-orbital rendezvous-ing with a space tug outside the atmosphere?What was the lifetime of the debris from the US Anti-satellite exercise for USA-193?What is the legal status of in orbit space debris?What are the causes of breakups of spent 2nd and 3rd stages, resulting in orbital debris?What is the linear dimension/mass/possible energy state of the smallest trackable orbital debris item?How is the Hubble main mirror protected from debris?What systems or technologies are developed to protect ISS from space debris?What is the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA) Augmented Geosynchronous Laboratory Experiment satellite?What did India's recently tested ASAT vehicle really look like?Why does this satellite collision debris field look like a big “X”?How many spy satellites could be destroyed before the debris field would be too massive to launch moon or mars manned missions?
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India just shot down a satellite from the ground. At what altitude range is the resulting debris field?
Why would a box full of 1cm balls released into LEO be so scary to an engineer supporting the ISS? - (Updated)Who is accountable for damage caused by the debris field of a successful ASAT testHow does the US's 2008 debris cloud compare to India's 2019 and China's 2007 contributions?What did India's recently tested ASAT vehicle really look like?Is there any kind of research on *sub*-orbital rendezvous-ing with a space tug outside the atmosphere?What was the lifetime of the debris from the US Anti-satellite exercise for USA-193?What is the legal status of in orbit space debris?What are the causes of breakups of spent 2nd and 3rd stages, resulting in orbital debris?What is the linear dimension/mass/possible energy state of the smallest trackable orbital debris item?How is the Hubble main mirror protected from debris?What systems or technologies are developed to protect ISS from space debris?What is the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA) Augmented Geosynchronous Laboratory Experiment satellite?What did India's recently tested ASAT vehicle really look like?Why does this satellite collision debris field look like a big “X”?How many spy satellites could be destroyed before the debris field would be too massive to launch moon or mars manned missions?
.everyoneloves__top-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__mid-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__bot-mid-leaderboard:empty margin-bottom:0;
$begingroup$
This tweet from India's prime minister Narendra Modi says:
मेरे प्यारे देशवासियों,
आज सवेरे लगभग 11.45 - 12.00 बजे मैं एक महत्वपूर्ण संदेश लेकर आप के बीच आऊँगा।
I would be addressing the nation at around 11:45 AM - 12.00 noon with an important message.
Do watch the address on television, radio or social media.
There are several subsequent tweets with more specifics, including this one:
In the journey of every nation there are moments that bring utmost pride and have a historic impact on generations to come.
One such moment is today.
India has successfully tested the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile. Congratulations to everyone on the success of #MissionShakti.
Question: At what range of altitudes is the resulting debris field?
note: I'm not asking for just a guess or speculation, please include a source of some type.
YouTube: DRDO's Anti Satellite (A-SAT) Test Visuals
From Times of India's Watch: Launch of anti-satellite missile for Mission Shakti:
Hat tip to @Ohsin for recommending this interesting video about the rocket, and the test itself:
debris military weapon india
asked Mar 27 at 14:24
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
|
show 1 more comment
$begingroup$
This tweet from India's prime minister Narendra Modi says:
मेरे प्यारे देशवासियों,
आज सवेरे लगभग 11.45 - 12.00 बजे मैं एक महत्वपूर्ण संदेश लेकर आप के बीच आऊँगा।
I would be addressing the nation at around 11:45 AM - 12.00 noon with an important message.
Do watch the address on television, radio or social media.
There are several subsequent tweets with more specifics, including this one:
In the journey of every nation there are moments that bring utmost pride and have a historic impact on generations to come.
One such moment is today.
India has successfully tested the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile. Congratulations to everyone on the success of #MissionShakti.
Question: At what range of altitudes is the resulting debris field?
note: I'm not asking for just a guess or speculation, please include a source of some type.
YouTube: DRDO's Anti Satellite (A-SAT) Test Visuals
From Times of India's Watch: Launch of anti-satellite missile for Mission Shakti:
Hat tip to @Ohsin for recommending this interesting video about the rocket, and the test itself:
debris military weapon india
asked Mar 27 at 14:24
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
4
$begingroup$
So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
$endgroup$
– Magic Octopus Urn
Mar 27 at 14:52
1
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economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:05
1
$begingroup$
just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:06
16
$begingroup$
"Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
Mar 27 at 17:22
1
$begingroup$
@jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 21:46
|
show 1 more comment
$begingroup$
This tweet from India's prime minister Narendra Modi says:
मेरे प्यारे देशवासियों,
आज सवेरे लगभग 11.45 - 12.00 बजे मैं एक महत्वपूर्ण संदेश लेकर आप के बीच आऊँगा।
I would be addressing the nation at around 11:45 AM - 12.00 noon with an important message.
Do watch the address on television, radio or social media.
There are several subsequent tweets with more specifics, including this one:
In the journey of every nation there are moments that bring utmost pride and have a historic impact on generations to come.
One such moment is today.
India has successfully tested the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile. Congratulations to everyone on the success of #MissionShakti.
Question: At what range of altitudes is the resulting debris field?
note: I'm not asking for just a guess or speculation, please include a source of some type.
YouTube: DRDO's Anti Satellite (A-SAT) Test Visuals
From Times of India's Watch: Launch of anti-satellite missile for Mission Shakti:
Hat tip to @Ohsin for recommending this interesting video about the rocket, and the test itself:
debris military weapon india
asked Mar 27 at 14:24
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
This tweet from India's prime minister Narendra Modi says:
मेरे प्यारे देशवासियों,
आज सवेरे लगभग 11.45 - 12.00 बजे मैं एक महत्वपूर्ण संदेश लेकर आप के बीच आऊँगा।
I would be addressing the nation at around 11:45 AM - 12.00 noon with an important message.
Do watch the address on television, radio or social media.
There are several subsequent tweets with more specifics, including this one:
In the journey of every nation there are moments that bring utmost pride and have a historic impact on generations to come.
One such moment is today.
India has successfully tested the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile. Congratulations to everyone on the success of #MissionShakti.
Question: At what range of altitudes is the resulting debris field?
note: I'm not asking for just a guess or speculation, please include a source of some type.
YouTube: DRDO's Anti Satellite (A-SAT) Test Visuals
From Times of India's Watch: Launch of anti-satellite missile for Mission Shakti:
Hat tip to @Ohsin for recommending this interesting video about the rocket, and the test itself:
debris military weapon india
debris military weapon india
asked Mar 27 at 14:24
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
asked Mar 27 at 14:24
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
edited Apr 7 at 1:00
uhoh
asked Mar 27 at 14:24
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
asked Mar 27 at 14:24
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
asked Mar 27 at 14:24
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
4
$begingroup$
So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
$endgroup$
– Magic Octopus Urn
Mar 27 at 14:52
1
$begingroup$
economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:05
1
$begingroup$
just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:06
16
$begingroup$
"Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
Mar 27 at 17:22
1
$begingroup$
@jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 21:46
|
show 1 more comment
4
$begingroup$
So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
$endgroup$
– Magic Octopus Urn
Mar 27 at 14:52
1
$begingroup$
economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:05
1
$begingroup$
just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:06
16
$begingroup$
"Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
Mar 27 at 17:22
1
$begingroup$
@jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 21:46
4
4
$begingroup$
So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
$endgroup$
– Magic Octopus Urn
Mar 27 at 14:52
$begingroup$
So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
$endgroup$
– Magic Octopus Urn
Mar 27 at 14:52
1
1
$begingroup$
economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:05
$begingroup$
economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:05
1
1
$begingroup$
just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:06
$begingroup$
just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:06
16
16
$begingroup$
"Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
Mar 27 at 17:22
$begingroup$
"Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
Mar 27 at 17:22
1
1
$begingroup$
@jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 21:46
$begingroup$
@jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 21:46
|
show 1 more comment
5 Answers
5
active
oldest
votes
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The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.
The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell
Edit: The first Gabbard Plot has been made for this event, from this source. Looks like it is going quite high.
answered Mar 27 at 14:42
PearsonArtPhoto♦PearsonArtPhoto
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
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add a comment |
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At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.
Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.
answered Mar 27 at 14:38
TristanTristan
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
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1
$begingroup$
as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 14:43
4
$begingroup$
At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 27 at 15:02
3
$begingroup$
Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
$endgroup$
– Harish
Mar 27 at 17:26
4
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Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
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– Tristan
Mar 28 at 14:58
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As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
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– Tristan
Mar 29 at 13:47
add a comment |
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At what altitude range is the resulting debris field?
Update:
CNN: India anti-satellite missile test a 'terrible thing,' NASA chief says
India's anti-satellite missile test created at least 400 pieces of orbital debris, the head of NASA says -- placing the International Space Station (ISS) and its astronauts at risk.
NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said Monday that just 60 pieces of debris were large enough to track. Of those, 24 went above the apogee of the ISS, the point of the space station's orbit farthest from the Earth.
"That is a terrible, terrible thing to create an event that sends debris at an apogee that goes above the International Space Station," Bridenstine said in a live-streamed NASA town hall meeting. "That kind of activity is not compatible with the future of human spaceflight."
He added: "It is not acceptable for us to allow people to create orbital debris fields that put at risk our people."
See also Ars Technica's India ASAT test debris poses danger to International Space Station, NASA says (hat tip @Machavity)
You can see and hear the complete question and answer in the new NASA video of the Town Hall with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine appropriately coincidentally released on April Fools Day 2019, starting at 07:40:
Original answer:
After about 05:00 in Scott Manley's video Updates - JPL Visit, Mars 2020, Moon in 5 Year, EVA Changes, Indian ASAT he talks about the test and in the video notes he links to the Analytical Graphics video 2019 Indian Anti-Satellite Weapon Test - Updated. The video mentions
- Breakup generated by DEBBIE tool implementation of ESA-enhanced NASA Standard Breakup Model 2004.
- Approximately 6500 fragments larger than 0.5 cm produced.
and the animation shows many debris fragments going 1000 km or higher, in elliptical orbits.
The ISS at 400 km will then definitely be intersecting this collision plane twice every 93 minutes at an altitude capable of intercepting some of these fragments.
answered Apr 1 at 16:17
uhohuhoh
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1
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Also arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/…
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– Machavity
Apr 2 at 19:58
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@Machavity thanks! added link.
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– uhoh
Apr 2 at 22:13
1
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Here are TLEs of fragments celestrak.com/NORAD/elements/2019-006.php
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– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:40
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@Ohsin that's great! Would you like to post an answer with the orbits? If not, I'll give it a try.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 6 at 5:44
1
$begingroup$
@uhoh Go ahead :)
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:51
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.
Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:
- launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
- MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A
- over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT
I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.
At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.
MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918
Source
# https://celestrak.com/satcat/
TLE = """MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()
# https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
# https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
# https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
# launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
# over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
# Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
# 20.757N, 87.084E
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite
load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
ts = load.timescale()
de421 = load('de421.bsp')
earth = de421['earth']
Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
longitude_degrees = +87.084,
elevation_m = 10.0)
minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)
MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)
astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)
pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s
r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
print pos_42
print r
print r - 6378.137
print v
if True:
plt.figure()
plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 90)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 360)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(250, 500)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
plt.show()
answered Mar 29 at 3:40
uhohuhoh
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Thanks to @Ohsin's comment I have plotted the propagated orbits of 57 tracked debris objects with published TLEs as well as the TLE for (whatever is left of) the original spacecraft and the original rocket body, as well as for the ISS.
You can see that most of the debris still has a low periapsis where it was created, but a lot of it has aopapsis of 1000 to 2000 kilometers. Of course the downward scattered objects immediately burned up in the atmosphere, so the distribution is asymmetrical.
Much of these remaining large pieces intersect the altitude of the ISS twice per orbit.
The first two plots are the 3D orbits, the thick black line is the ISS's inclined orbit. Two rotated views are shown because Stack Exchange doesn't support WebGL yet (also and also), and neither do I yet.
The last plot is altitude versus time (minutes) starting at the ascending node of each object separately. Obviously the objects with a higher apoapsis have a longer period.
In all plots, the thick black line is the ISS.
Python script: https://pastebin.com/X7u0RZWR
answered Apr 6 at 10:34
uhohuhoh
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5 Answers
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$begingroup$
The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.
The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell
Edit: The first Gabbard Plot has been made for this event, from this source. Looks like it is going quite high.
answered Mar 27 at 14:42
PearsonArtPhoto♦PearsonArtPhoto
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.
The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell
Edit: The first Gabbard Plot has been made for this event, from this source. Looks like it is going quite high.
answered Mar 27 at 14:42
PearsonArtPhoto♦PearsonArtPhoto
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.
The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell
Edit: The first Gabbard Plot has been made for this event, from this source. Looks like it is going quite high.
answered Mar 27 at 14:42
PearsonArtPhoto♦PearsonArtPhoto
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
$endgroup$
The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.
The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell
Edit: The first Gabbard Plot has been made for this event, from this source. Looks like it is going quite high.
answered Mar 27 at 14:42
PearsonArtPhoto♦PearsonArtPhoto
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
edited Apr 7 at 11:03
answered Mar 27 at 14:42
PearsonArtPhoto♦PearsonArtPhoto
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
answered Mar 27 at 14:42
PearsonArtPhoto♦PearsonArtPhoto
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
answered Mar 27 at 14:42
PearsonArtPhoto♦PearsonArtPhoto
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
88k16 gold badges256 silver badges485 bronze badges
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.
Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.
answered Mar 27 at 14:38
TristanTristan
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 14:43
4
$begingroup$
At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 27 at 15:02
3
$begingroup$
Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
$endgroup$
– Harish
Mar 27 at 17:26
4
$begingroup$
Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 28 at 14:58
$begingroup$
As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 29 at 13:47
add a comment |
$begingroup$
At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.
Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.
answered Mar 27 at 14:38
TristanTristan
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 14:43
4
$begingroup$
At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 27 at 15:02
3
$begingroup$
Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
$endgroup$
– Harish
Mar 27 at 17:26
4
$begingroup$
Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 28 at 14:58
$begingroup$
As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 29 at 13:47
add a comment |
$begingroup$
At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.
Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.
answered Mar 27 at 14:38
TristanTristan
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
$endgroup$
At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.
Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.
answered Mar 27 at 14:38
TristanTristan
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
answered Mar 27 at 14:38
TristanTristan
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
answered Mar 27 at 14:38
TristanTristan
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
answered Mar 27 at 14:38
TristanTristan
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
11.9k1 gold badge39 silver badges60 bronze badges
1
$begingroup$
as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 14:43
4
$begingroup$
At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 27 at 15:02
3
$begingroup$
Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
$endgroup$
– Harish
Mar 27 at 17:26
4
$begingroup$
Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 28 at 14:58
$begingroup$
As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 29 at 13:47
add a comment |
1
$begingroup$
as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 14:43
4
$begingroup$
At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 27 at 15:02
3
$begingroup$
Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
$endgroup$
– Harish
Mar 27 at 17:26
4
$begingroup$
Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 28 at 14:58
$begingroup$
As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 29 at 13:47
1
1
$begingroup$
as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 14:43
$begingroup$
as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 14:43
4
4
$begingroup$
At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 27 at 15:02
$begingroup$
At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 27 at 15:02
3
3
$begingroup$
Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
$endgroup$
– Harish
Mar 27 at 17:26
$begingroup$
Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
$endgroup$
– Harish
Mar 27 at 17:26
4
4
$begingroup$
Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 28 at 14:58
$begingroup$
Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 28 at 14:58
$begingroup$
As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 29 at 13:47
$begingroup$
As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
$endgroup$
– Tristan
Mar 29 at 13:47
add a comment |
$begingroup$
At what altitude range is the resulting debris field?
Update:
CNN: India anti-satellite missile test a 'terrible thing,' NASA chief says
India's anti-satellite missile test created at least 400 pieces of orbital debris, the head of NASA says -- placing the International Space Station (ISS) and its astronauts at risk.
NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said Monday that just 60 pieces of debris were large enough to track. Of those, 24 went above the apogee of the ISS, the point of the space station's orbit farthest from the Earth.
"That is a terrible, terrible thing to create an event that sends debris at an apogee that goes above the International Space Station," Bridenstine said in a live-streamed NASA town hall meeting. "That kind of activity is not compatible with the future of human spaceflight."
He added: "It is not acceptable for us to allow people to create orbital debris fields that put at risk our people."
See also Ars Technica's India ASAT test debris poses danger to International Space Station, NASA says (hat tip @Machavity)
You can see and hear the complete question and answer in the new NASA video of the Town Hall with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine appropriately coincidentally released on April Fools Day 2019, starting at 07:40:
Original answer:
After about 05:00 in Scott Manley's video Updates - JPL Visit, Mars 2020, Moon in 5 Year, EVA Changes, Indian ASAT he talks about the test and in the video notes he links to the Analytical Graphics video 2019 Indian Anti-Satellite Weapon Test - Updated. The video mentions
- Breakup generated by DEBBIE tool implementation of ESA-enhanced NASA Standard Breakup Model 2004.
- Approximately 6500 fragments larger than 0.5 cm produced.
and the animation shows many debris fragments going 1000 km or higher, in elliptical orbits.
The ISS at 400 km will then definitely be intersecting this collision plane twice every 93 minutes at an altitude capable of intercepting some of these fragments.
answered Apr 1 at 16:17
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Also arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/…
$endgroup$
– Machavity
Apr 2 at 19:58
$begingroup$
@Machavity thanks! added link.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 2 at 22:13
1
$begingroup$
Here are TLEs of fragments celestrak.com/NORAD/elements/2019-006.php
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:40
$begingroup$
@Ohsin that's great! Would you like to post an answer with the orbits? If not, I'll give it a try.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 6 at 5:44
1
$begingroup$
@uhoh Go ahead :)
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:51
add a comment |
$begingroup$
At what altitude range is the resulting debris field?
Update:
CNN: India anti-satellite missile test a 'terrible thing,' NASA chief says
India's anti-satellite missile test created at least 400 pieces of orbital debris, the head of NASA says -- placing the International Space Station (ISS) and its astronauts at risk.
NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said Monday that just 60 pieces of debris were large enough to track. Of those, 24 went above the apogee of the ISS, the point of the space station's orbit farthest from the Earth.
"That is a terrible, terrible thing to create an event that sends debris at an apogee that goes above the International Space Station," Bridenstine said in a live-streamed NASA town hall meeting. "That kind of activity is not compatible with the future of human spaceflight."
He added: "It is not acceptable for us to allow people to create orbital debris fields that put at risk our people."
See also Ars Technica's India ASAT test debris poses danger to International Space Station, NASA says (hat tip @Machavity)
You can see and hear the complete question and answer in the new NASA video of the Town Hall with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine appropriately coincidentally released on April Fools Day 2019, starting at 07:40:
Original answer:
After about 05:00 in Scott Manley's video Updates - JPL Visit, Mars 2020, Moon in 5 Year, EVA Changes, Indian ASAT he talks about the test and in the video notes he links to the Analytical Graphics video 2019 Indian Anti-Satellite Weapon Test - Updated. The video mentions
- Breakup generated by DEBBIE tool implementation of ESA-enhanced NASA Standard Breakup Model 2004.
- Approximately 6500 fragments larger than 0.5 cm produced.
and the animation shows many debris fragments going 1000 km or higher, in elliptical orbits.
The ISS at 400 km will then definitely be intersecting this collision plane twice every 93 minutes at an altitude capable of intercepting some of these fragments.
answered Apr 1 at 16:17
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
Also arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/…
$endgroup$
– Machavity
Apr 2 at 19:58
$begingroup$
@Machavity thanks! added link.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 2 at 22:13
1
$begingroup$
Here are TLEs of fragments celestrak.com/NORAD/elements/2019-006.php
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:40
$begingroup$
@Ohsin that's great! Would you like to post an answer with the orbits? If not, I'll give it a try.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 6 at 5:44
1
$begingroup$
@uhoh Go ahead :)
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:51
add a comment |
$begingroup$
At what altitude range is the resulting debris field?
Update:
CNN: India anti-satellite missile test a 'terrible thing,' NASA chief says
India's anti-satellite missile test created at least 400 pieces of orbital debris, the head of NASA says -- placing the International Space Station (ISS) and its astronauts at risk.
NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said Monday that just 60 pieces of debris were large enough to track. Of those, 24 went above the apogee of the ISS, the point of the space station's orbit farthest from the Earth.
"That is a terrible, terrible thing to create an event that sends debris at an apogee that goes above the International Space Station," Bridenstine said in a live-streamed NASA town hall meeting. "That kind of activity is not compatible with the future of human spaceflight."
He added: "It is not acceptable for us to allow people to create orbital debris fields that put at risk our people."
See also Ars Technica's India ASAT test debris poses danger to International Space Station, NASA says (hat tip @Machavity)
You can see and hear the complete question and answer in the new NASA video of the Town Hall with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine appropriately coincidentally released on April Fools Day 2019, starting at 07:40:
Original answer:
After about 05:00 in Scott Manley's video Updates - JPL Visit, Mars 2020, Moon in 5 Year, EVA Changes, Indian ASAT he talks about the test and in the video notes he links to the Analytical Graphics video 2019 Indian Anti-Satellite Weapon Test - Updated. The video mentions
- Breakup generated by DEBBIE tool implementation of ESA-enhanced NASA Standard Breakup Model 2004.
- Approximately 6500 fragments larger than 0.5 cm produced.
and the animation shows many debris fragments going 1000 km or higher, in elliptical orbits.
The ISS at 400 km will then definitely be intersecting this collision plane twice every 93 minutes at an altitude capable of intercepting some of these fragments.
answered Apr 1 at 16:17
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
At what altitude range is the resulting debris field?
Update:
CNN: India anti-satellite missile test a 'terrible thing,' NASA chief says
India's anti-satellite missile test created at least 400 pieces of orbital debris, the head of NASA says -- placing the International Space Station (ISS) and its astronauts at risk.
NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said Monday that just 60 pieces of debris were large enough to track. Of those, 24 went above the apogee of the ISS, the point of the space station's orbit farthest from the Earth.
"That is a terrible, terrible thing to create an event that sends debris at an apogee that goes above the International Space Station," Bridenstine said in a live-streamed NASA town hall meeting. "That kind of activity is not compatible with the future of human spaceflight."
He added: "It is not acceptable for us to allow people to create orbital debris fields that put at risk our people."
See also Ars Technica's India ASAT test debris poses danger to International Space Station, NASA says (hat tip @Machavity)
You can see and hear the complete question and answer in the new NASA video of the Town Hall with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine appropriately coincidentally released on April Fools Day 2019, starting at 07:40:
Original answer:
After about 05:00 in Scott Manley's video Updates - JPL Visit, Mars 2020, Moon in 5 Year, EVA Changes, Indian ASAT he talks about the test and in the video notes he links to the Analytical Graphics video 2019 Indian Anti-Satellite Weapon Test - Updated. The video mentions
- Breakup generated by DEBBIE tool implementation of ESA-enhanced NASA Standard Breakup Model 2004.
- Approximately 6500 fragments larger than 0.5 cm produced.
and the animation shows many debris fragments going 1000 km or higher, in elliptical orbits.
The ISS at 400 km will then definitely be intersecting this collision plane twice every 93 minutes at an altitude capable of intercepting some of these fragments.
answered Apr 1 at 16:17
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
edited Apr 2 at 22:13
answered Apr 1 at 16:17
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
answered Apr 1 at 16:17
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
answered Apr 1 at 16:17
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
1
$begingroup$
Also arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/…
$endgroup$
– Machavity
Apr 2 at 19:58
$begingroup$
@Machavity thanks! added link.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 2 at 22:13
1
$begingroup$
Here are TLEs of fragments celestrak.com/NORAD/elements/2019-006.php
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:40
$begingroup$
@Ohsin that's great! Would you like to post an answer with the orbits? If not, I'll give it a try.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 6 at 5:44
1
$begingroup$
@uhoh Go ahead :)
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:51
add a comment |
1
$begingroup$
Also arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/…
$endgroup$
– Machavity
Apr 2 at 19:58
$begingroup$
@Machavity thanks! added link.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 2 at 22:13
1
$begingroup$
Here are TLEs of fragments celestrak.com/NORAD/elements/2019-006.php
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:40
$begingroup$
@Ohsin that's great! Would you like to post an answer with the orbits? If not, I'll give it a try.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 6 at 5:44
1
$begingroup$
@uhoh Go ahead :)
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:51
1
1
$begingroup$
Also arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/…
$endgroup$
– Machavity
Apr 2 at 19:58
$begingroup$
Also arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/…
$endgroup$
– Machavity
Apr 2 at 19:58
$begingroup$
@Machavity thanks! added link.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 2 at 22:13
$begingroup$
@Machavity thanks! added link.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 2 at 22:13
1
1
$begingroup$
Here are TLEs of fragments celestrak.com/NORAD/elements/2019-006.php
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:40
$begingroup$
Here are TLEs of fragments celestrak.com/NORAD/elements/2019-006.php
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:40
$begingroup$
@Ohsin that's great! Would you like to post an answer with the orbits? If not, I'll give it a try.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 6 at 5:44
$begingroup$
@Ohsin that's great! Would you like to post an answer with the orbits? If not, I'll give it a try.
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Apr 6 at 5:44
1
1
$begingroup$
@uhoh Go ahead :)
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:51
$begingroup$
@uhoh Go ahead :)
$endgroup$
– Ohsin
Apr 6 at 5:51
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.
Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:
- launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
- MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A
- over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT
I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.
At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.
MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918
Source
# https://celestrak.com/satcat/
TLE = """MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()
# https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
# https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
# https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
# launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
# over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
# Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
# 20.757N, 87.084E
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite
load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
ts = load.timescale()
de421 = load('de421.bsp')
earth = de421['earth']
Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
longitude_degrees = +87.084,
elevation_m = 10.0)
minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)
MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)
astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)
pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s
r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
print pos_42
print r
print r - 6378.137
print v
if True:
plt.figure()
plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 90)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 360)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(250, 500)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
plt.show()
answered Mar 29 at 3:40
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.
Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:
- launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
- MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A
- over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT
I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.
At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.
MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918
Source
# https://celestrak.com/satcat/
TLE = """MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()
# https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
# https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
# https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
# launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
# over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
# Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
# 20.757N, 87.084E
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite
load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
ts = load.timescale()
de421 = load('de421.bsp')
earth = de421['earth']
Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
longitude_degrees = +87.084,
elevation_m = 10.0)
minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)
MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)
astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)
pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s
r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
print pos_42
print r
print r - 6378.137
print v
if True:
plt.figure()
plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 90)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 360)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(250, 500)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
plt.show()
answered Mar 29 at 3:40
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.
Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:
- launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
- MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A
- over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT
I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.
At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.
MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918
Source
# https://celestrak.com/satcat/
TLE = """MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()
# https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
# https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
# https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
# launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
# over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
# Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
# 20.757N, 87.084E
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite
load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
ts = load.timescale()
de421 = load('de421.bsp')
earth = de421['earth']
Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
longitude_degrees = +87.084,
elevation_m = 10.0)
minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)
MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)
astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)
pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s
r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
print pos_42
print r
print r - 6378.137
print v
if True:
plt.figure()
plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 90)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 360)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(250, 500)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
plt.show()
answered Mar 29 at 3:40
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.
Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:
- launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
- MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A
- over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT
I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.
At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.
MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918
Source
# https://celestrak.com/satcat/
TLE = """MICROSAT-R
1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()
# https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
# https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
# https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
# launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
# over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
# Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
# 20.757N, 87.084E
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite
load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
ts = load.timescale()
de421 = load('de421.bsp')
earth = de421['earth']
Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
longitude_degrees = +87.084,
elevation_m = 10.0)
minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)
MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)
astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)
pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s
r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
print pos_42
print r
print r - 6378.137
print v
if True:
plt.figure()
plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 90)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(0, 360)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
plt.ylim(250, 500)
plt.xlim(35, 50)
plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
plt.show()
answered Mar 29 at 3:40
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
edited Mar 29 at 3:58
answered Mar 29 at 3:40
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
answered Mar 29 at 3:40
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
answered Mar 29 at 3:40
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Thanks to @Ohsin's comment I have plotted the propagated orbits of 57 tracked debris objects with published TLEs as well as the TLE for (whatever is left of) the original spacecraft and the original rocket body, as well as for the ISS.
You can see that most of the debris still has a low periapsis where it was created, but a lot of it has aopapsis of 1000 to 2000 kilometers. Of course the downward scattered objects immediately burned up in the atmosphere, so the distribution is asymmetrical.
Much of these remaining large pieces intersect the altitude of the ISS twice per orbit.
The first two plots are the 3D orbits, the thick black line is the ISS's inclined orbit. Two rotated views are shown because Stack Exchange doesn't support WebGL yet (also and also), and neither do I yet.
The last plot is altitude versus time (minutes) starting at the ascending node of each object separately. Obviously the objects with a higher apoapsis have a longer period.
In all plots, the thick black line is the ISS.
Python script: https://pastebin.com/X7u0RZWR
answered Apr 6 at 10:34
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Thanks to @Ohsin's comment I have plotted the propagated orbits of 57 tracked debris objects with published TLEs as well as the TLE for (whatever is left of) the original spacecraft and the original rocket body, as well as for the ISS.
You can see that most of the debris still has a low periapsis where it was created, but a lot of it has aopapsis of 1000 to 2000 kilometers. Of course the downward scattered objects immediately burned up in the atmosphere, so the distribution is asymmetrical.
Much of these remaining large pieces intersect the altitude of the ISS twice per orbit.
The first two plots are the 3D orbits, the thick black line is the ISS's inclined orbit. Two rotated views are shown because Stack Exchange doesn't support WebGL yet (also and also), and neither do I yet.
The last plot is altitude versus time (minutes) starting at the ascending node of each object separately. Obviously the objects with a higher apoapsis have a longer period.
In all plots, the thick black line is the ISS.
Python script: https://pastebin.com/X7u0RZWR
answered Apr 6 at 10:34
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Thanks to @Ohsin's comment I have plotted the propagated orbits of 57 tracked debris objects with published TLEs as well as the TLE for (whatever is left of) the original spacecraft and the original rocket body, as well as for the ISS.
You can see that most of the debris still has a low periapsis where it was created, but a lot of it has aopapsis of 1000 to 2000 kilometers. Of course the downward scattered objects immediately burned up in the atmosphere, so the distribution is asymmetrical.
Much of these remaining large pieces intersect the altitude of the ISS twice per orbit.
The first two plots are the 3D orbits, the thick black line is the ISS's inclined orbit. Two rotated views are shown because Stack Exchange doesn't support WebGL yet (also and also), and neither do I yet.
The last plot is altitude versus time (minutes) starting at the ascending node of each object separately. Obviously the objects with a higher apoapsis have a longer period.
In all plots, the thick black line is the ISS.
Python script: https://pastebin.com/X7u0RZWR
answered Apr 6 at 10:34
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
$endgroup$
Thanks to @Ohsin's comment I have plotted the propagated orbits of 57 tracked debris objects with published TLEs as well as the TLE for (whatever is left of) the original spacecraft and the original rocket body, as well as for the ISS.
You can see that most of the debris still has a low periapsis where it was created, but a lot of it has aopapsis of 1000 to 2000 kilometers. Of course the downward scattered objects immediately burned up in the atmosphere, so the distribution is asymmetrical.
Much of these remaining large pieces intersect the altitude of the ISS twice per orbit.
The first two plots are the 3D orbits, the thick black line is the ISS's inclined orbit. Two rotated views are shown because Stack Exchange doesn't support WebGL yet (also and also), and neither do I yet.
The last plot is altitude versus time (minutes) starting at the ascending node of each object separately. Obviously the objects with a higher apoapsis have a longer period.
In all plots, the thick black line is the ISS.
Python script: https://pastebin.com/X7u0RZWR
answered Apr 6 at 10:34
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
edited Apr 7 at 0:26
answered Apr 6 at 10:34
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
answered Apr 6 at 10:34
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
answered Apr 6 at 10:34
uhohuhoh
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
50.5k23 gold badges199 silver badges652 bronze badges
add a comment |
add a comment |
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4
$begingroup$
So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
$endgroup$
– Magic Octopus Urn
Mar 27 at 14:52
1
$begingroup$
economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:05
1
$begingroup$
just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 15:06
16
$begingroup$
"Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
Mar 27 at 17:22
1
$begingroup$
@jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
$endgroup$
– uhoh
Mar 27 at 21:46